Polling Memo: Colorado District 3 Republican Primary Dynamics

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To: Interested Parties
From: Hope Scheppelman for Congress
Date: January 6, 2026
Subject: Polling Memo: Colorado District 3 Republican Primary Dynamics

Based on recent internal polling, incumbent Jeff Hurd NARROWLY leads the initial ballot as expected but trails challenger Hope Scheppelman after voters receive basic information about both candidates.

The survey of 576 GOP Primary likely voters in Colorado CD 3 was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on December 8-12, 2025. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC.

Key Findings

Scenario Jeff Hurd Hope Scheppelman Not Sure
Initial Ballot 36% 27% 36%
Informed Ballot 33% 39% 29%

While Hurd holds a 9-point lead in the initial head-to-head, the race shifts significantly after voters are presented with basic information about both candidates, giving Scheppelman a 6-point lead. A large portion of the electorate (27–30%) remains undecided (NET 15-POINT SWING).

Candidate Favorability: Hope Scheppelman

  • Favorable: 41% (20% very favorable)
  • Unfavorable: 16%
  • Unknown: 43% of voters are still “not sure” of their opinion of her, revealing significant room for growth among the conservative leaning Republican electorate in Colorado’s 3rd District.

The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Analysis of Poll Results & 2025 Political Efforts:

Candidate Comparison: Ideological Alignment with the District

The following combines key poll results and public information from 2025 regarding the candidates’ platforms and alignment with District 3 voters:

Hope Scheppelman: Conservative Challenger

Scheppelman has naturally aligned with the district’s pro-Trump base and the “MAGA” and Traditional wing of the Republican Party as well as Independent voters looking for an outsider to reform government.

  • Trump Alignment: With a 73% total approval rating for Donald Trump among primary voters, Scheppelman has accurately characterized Hurd as “working against” President Trump, despite Trump’s pledged endorsement of all incumbent Republican Congressmen who voted for the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill)

  • Libertarian Alignment: Signed a pledge prepared by the Colorado Libertarian Party for issue transparency and to avoid a “spoiler” candidate in 2026, committing to principles like eliminating waste, fraud and abuse in federal spending, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and protecting Constitutional personal liberties.

  • Western Values Alignment: Voters support Scheppelman’s leadership in support of Term Limits while Hurd refuses to limit his term in office.

  • Key Stances: Hope Scheppelman prioritizes physical and human border security barriers, deportation of illegals, ending the fentanyl crisis, protecting public water and lands, eliminating government waste, fraud, and abuse, and making our economy more affordable for middle class working families.

Jeff Hurd: ‘Moderate’ Freshman Incumbent

Working to pass Democrat initiatives rather than conservative Republican solutions to Biden-Obama Era failures, Hurd has emphasized his so-called “bipartisan framework” approach to governance, which has drawn criticism from most primary voters who are aware of his voting and legislative efforts:

Democrat Party Alignment:

  • Obamacare Enabler: Co-led the “CommonGround 2025 and the HOPE Act of 2025” health care framework with Democrats to extend and preserve Obamacare subsidies.

  • Federal Land Grab: Republican co-sponsor of Democratic US Senators Hickenlooper and Bennett’s Gunnison Outdoor Resources Protection Act (GORP) to lock up 730,000 acres of public lands in Colorado’s 3rd District.

  • Open Borders: Sides against the Republican majority by opposing deportation of all illegal aliens. While Colorado communities pay the price in higher crime, more drug trafficking, and lost jobs.

  • Defended Ilhan Omar: Votes with left-wing of Democrat Party in support of Ilhan Omar after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, choosing the radical left over accountability and American values.

  • Anti-Trump Economy: Against Trump’s successful tariff strategy. Siding with globalist interests instead of defending American workers, manufacturing, and economic sovereignty.

Anti-Trump Alignment:

  • Challenged President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs by co-sponsoring the Trade Review Act of 2025, a stance he maintains regardless of which party is in power.
  • Against Trump’s J6 pardons that exposed a corrupt Biden DOJ.

Conclusion

As more voters understand Rep. Jeff Hurd’s left-leaning views through his legislative record, they are quickly shifting support to conservative challenger Hope Scheppelman and her authentic pro-Trump alignment on key issues. With 43% of Republican Primary voters still unaware or unsure of Scheppelman, while still leading the Informed Ballot by 6 pts, she is well within striking distance to defeat Hurd and win Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District Republican Primary in this solid Republican district.

FROM THE POLLSTER: “I’ve polled quite a few races like this in the ’26 cycle and, despite the 43% ‘not sure’ favorability rating, Hope performs the best against the incumbent of any of the districts. This is a huge opportunity to grow an even bigger lead.” Mark Mitchell, Head Pollster, Rasmussen Reports.

For further results and analysis, contact the Hope Scheppelman for Congress campaign at: contact@hopeforcolorado.com

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